Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

For environments with large time horizons, we show that the principal's optimal

Our goal is to design algorithms that can automatically adapt to theunknown hardness of the problem,i.e.,thenumberofbestarms.

To some, METR's "time horizon plot" indicates that AI utopia--or apocalypse--is close at hand. The truth is more complicated. Every time OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic drops a new frontier large language model, the AI community holds its breath. It doesn't exhale until METR, an AI research nonprofit whose name stands for "Model Evaluation & Threat Research," updates a now-iconic graph that has played a major role in the AI discourse since it was first released in March of last year. The graph suggests that certain AI capabilities are developing at an exponential rate, and more recent model releases have outperformed that already impressive trend. That was certainly the case for Claude Opus 4.5, the latest version of Anthropic's most powerful model, which was released in late November.

We consider a distributed online convex optimization problem when streaming data are distributed among computing agents over a connected communication network. Since the data are high-dimensional or the network is large-scale, communication load can be a bottleneck for the efficiency of distributed algorithms. To tackle this bottleneck, we apply the state-of-art data compression scheme to the fundamental GD-based distributed online algorithms. Three algorithms with difference-compressed communication are proposed for full information feedback (DC-DOGD), one-point bandit feedback (DC-DOBD), and two-point bandit feedback (DC-DO2BD), respectively. We obtain regret bounds explicitly in terms of time horizon, compression ratio, decision dimension, agent number, and network parameters. Our algorithms are proved to be no-regret and match the same regret bounds, w.r.t.